Today, Thursday, 12.03.2026

USD/INR:

The Indian rupee fell to around 92.3 per dollar, marking a fresh record low, as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove renewed demand for the dollar and heightened concerns over oil supply.

The decline followed reports that two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, forcing Iraq to suspend operations at its oil terminals.

The incidents disrupted shipments, heightened geopolitical risks, and raised worries about maritime safety and global crude supplies.

In response to the energy market strain, the International Energy Agency announced its largest-ever coordinated release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to help contain surging prices.

Investors are also closely watching today's inflation data, seeking signals on how the central bank might adjust monetary policy in the face of rising energy costs.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Wednesday, as inflationary concerns resurfaced amid a rise in oil prices. A backward-looking in-line U.S. consumer inflation reading did little to boost expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Oil was higher on Wednesday as the Iran conflict showed no signs of ending. A record release of 400 million barrels of oil by the International Energy Agency (IEA) from emergency reserves did little to alleviate worries about a spike in inflation. 

In a note, analysts at ING flagged that the overall foreign-exchange market remains "strongly driven" by recent wild fluctuations in oil prices.

Attention is firmly fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway south of Iran through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, much of it destined for countries across Asia. Fears of Iranian attacks have led to a pile-up of vessels on either of the strait, with container companies attempting to guard the safety of crews and struggling to find insurance for sailings.

Brent futures, the global benchmark, now hover around $90 a barrel after having surged to $120 a barrel earlier this week. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have jumped, possibly putting upward pressure on inflation that could lead the Fed to take a more hawkish monetary policy stance. Higher interest rates may attract more foreign investment, further bolstering the dollar.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day and touches a fresh weekly low, around the 1.3370 region, during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 1.3400 mark, down less than 0.15% for the day.

An intraday move beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.3255-1.3867 downswing was seen as a key trigger for the GBP/USD bulls, though the subsequent move up stalls near the 38.2% Fibo. level. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark before positioning for additional gains toward the 50% retracement and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart converging in the 1.3560-1.3565 region.

On the downside, initial support stands at the 23.6% retracement at 1.3399, followed by stronger backing at 1.3350, where the recent consolidation base aligns with the latest pullback lows. A sustained move above 1.3565 would strengthen the bullish case, while a drop below 1.3350 would weaken the current upward bias and point back toward the 1.3300 area.

Momentum signals underpin the upside: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has moved above its signal line in positive territory with a modestly expanding histogram, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds near 60, indicating firm but not overstretched bullish momentum.

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.1540 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains stronger, as surging energy prices heightened inflationary risks and reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.

The February US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) and 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), largely in line with market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY.

The relatively steady inflation figures reduced fears of a sudden surge in price pressures and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates steady in the near term. Analysts note that the latest CPI report does not yet fully reflect the recent surge in oil prices caused by geopolitical developments. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will be eyed on Friday.

Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder of ING Group say Euro (EUR) rates remain highly sensitive to energy prices, with markets still pricing European Central Bank rate hikes in 2026. They note that falling energy prices could erase ECB hike expectations and push 2-year yields lower, while persistently high energy costs may initially steepen the euro swap curve before weighing on longer-dated rates.

GOLD:

The United States (US) and Iran war shows no signs of de-escalating, with Tehran intensifying its attacks on tankers and vessels in Iraqi waters and near the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices resume their uptrend on renewed fears about supply disruption, even after the US and the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of emergency oil reserves to alleviate supply concerns and counter soaring energy prices, fuelled by the Middle East conflict.

The IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its members' strategic reserves, with the US' share amounting to 172 million barrels.

Surging Oil prices aggravate concerns over rising inflationary pressures, lifting US Treasury bond yields across the curve alongside the US Dollar (USD).

Higher inflation expectations fuel bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep interest rates on an extended pause this year, supporting the US Treasury bond yields and the USD at the expense of the non-yielding Gold.

The hawkish Fed expectations remained untouched even after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday came in line with estimates for February. Note the inflation report doesn't account for the oil shock tied to the Iran war, which rattled the outlook.

However, Gold has managed to find dip-buying interest at lower levels due to its inherent characteristic as a traditional store of value in times of global uncertainty and market unrest.

Looking ahead, updates on the Iran war and hawkish Fed expectations will continue to remain a drag on Gold should Oil prices stretch their upward trajectory.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 11.03.2026@ 09.00am)

Cash/Tom: 0.15/1.00 Cash/Spot: 0.50/4.00

Tom/Spot: Spot/Next: 0.10/1.25

Cash Date: 12.03.2026

Tom Date: 13.03.2026

Spot Date: 16.03.2026

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (11.03.2026)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 11.03.2026

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as 09.03.2026

Stock Indices

The views contained herein are those of individuals and not necessarily those of the Bank.  This is for information purpose only and no recommendations are intended.  While due care has been taken in preparation of this communication, IOB cannot be held responsible for any consequences of any decisions based on this information. Comments/Suggestions may be freely emailed to feddeal@iobnet.co.in