Today, Wednesday, 18.03.2026

USD/INR:

The Asian currency USDINR was at 92.43 as of 10:00 a.m. IST, down marginally from its close at 92.37 in the previous session. The rupee has been trading close to its all-time low of 92.4750, which was hit last week.

While Brent crude prices eased, offering some relief to regional currencies, the rupee was under pressure due to elevated demand to buy dollars at the reference rate.

The Reserve Bank of India's reference rate is the daily benchmark used to settle contracts and often attracts concentrated dollar buying or selling.

Two traders said state-run banks were offering dollars, keeping the rupee in a tight band, echoing price action from earlier this week.

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES:

USD:

The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday, continuing to take a bit of a breather after a solid advance since the start of the Iran conflict. The greenback has been a favored safe haven of choice as oil prices spike, sparking concerns of an inflationary shock.

The focus is on a slew of central bank meetings this week in which policymakers are expected to comment on the fighting in the Middle East and its possible impact on inflation.

Oil prices climbed, with Brent crude futures -- the global benchmark -- continuing to hover above $100 a barrel. Traders have been eyeing the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping choke point through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes.

Iran has threatened to attack any vessel carrying goods benefiting the U.S. or its allies attempting to make the crossing, leading many container shipping companies to halt sailings. Prices for oil and gas have surged as a result since start of the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday criticized members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for not helping out. While the UK and France suggested that they would be open to discussing options around reopening the Strait of Hormuz with Washington, several U.S. allies rejected President Donald Trump’s call for aid in unblocking the bottleneck, including Germany and Japan.

Trump previously suggested that the U.S. would not need any aid in restarting tanker traffic through the strait, although he said "numerous countries" had told him that "they’re on the way" to providing help.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD steadies after posting gains over the previous two sessions, hovering around 1.1350 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The pair shows limited movement as the US Dollar holds steady, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for later in the day.

The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a reinforcement of a bearish bias, as the pair pulled back from the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern. Moreover, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 40 mark, confirming persistent downside pressure rather than oversold conditions and keeping the focus on the recent sequence of lower daily highs.

The GBP/USD pair may explore the region downwards in terms of finding the primary support at the three-month low of 1.3253, which was recorded on December 3. Further declines would put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair to navigate the region around the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3140, followed by the 11-month low at 1.3010.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.3414, aligned with the upper descending channel boundary. Further advances above the channel would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3482. The improved medium-term price momentum may lead the GBP/USD pair to navigate the region around 1.3869, the highest since September 2021, reached on January 27

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD ticks slightly lower after posting gains over the previous two sessions, hovering near 1.1530 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The pair shows limited movement as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision scheduled for later in the day.

Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range for March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If the Fed opts to hold rates steady, it would mark the second consecutive pause, reflecting a cautious stance amid increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Traders are particularly focused on guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding how the recent surge in oil prices may influence the central bank’s policy outlook. Crude oil prices have continued to climb against the backdrop of persistent Middle East tensions, while US allies have resisted President Donald Trump’s request to assist in securing shipping routes through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

GOLD:

Gold extends its sideways consolidative price move around the $5,000 psychological mark heading into the European session as traders seem hesitant ahead of the crucial FOMC decision. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the status quo and keep interest rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting. The market focus, however, will be on the accompanying policy statement and updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for more cues about the path of future interest rates amid fears of a war-driven spike in inflation. This, in turn, will influence the US Dollar price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the US-Israel attacks on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint handling around 20% of global oil supply – led to severe disruption of energy trade. This has been fueling inflationary concerns and forcing traders to trim their bets for more interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. In fact, the current market pricing indicates a significant shift in market expectations from multiple rate reductions to potentially just one in December. This, in turn, assists the USD to stall a two-day-old retracement slide from its highest level since May 2025 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the Gold price. However, heightened geopolitical uncertainties continue to benefit traditional safe-haven assets and limit the downside for the precious metal, warranting caution for bears.

USD/INR Cash/Tom/Spot Levels: (in Paisa)

(Updated as on 18.03.2026@ 09.00am)

Cash/Tom: 0.75/1.75, Cash/Spot: 1.75/3.750

Tom/Spot: 1.00/2.00, Spot/Next: 0.05/0.95

Cash Date: 18.03.2026

Tom Date: 20.03.2026

Spot Date: 23.03.2026

MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES: as on (17.03.2026)

Foreign Currencies

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) on 17.03.2026

Precious Metals

Updated: 17:30 hrs. (12:00 GMT) as 09.03.2026

Stock Indices

The views contained herein are those of individuals and not necessarily those of the Bank.  This is for information purpose only and no recommendations are intended.  While due care has been taken in preparation of this communication, IOB cannot be held responsible for any consequences of any decisions based on this information. Comments/Suggestions may be freely emailed to feddeal@iobnet.co.in